Introduction

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faces a daunting challenge in Kerala for the upcoming Lok Sabha Election 2024. Despite recent visits by Prime Minister Modi and a few promising constituencies, the BJP has yet to secure any seats. This article will explore the current situation, the key challenges, and possible strategies for the BJP to secure some victories.

Current Situation

To date, the BJP has won zero seats in Kerala during the Lok Sabha election, indicating that the party has not yet opened its account in this contentious election. While there are indications that the party may win in a handful of seats, such as Thiruvananthapuram Attingal, Palakkad, Pathanamthitta, and Thrissur, the prospects remain uncertain.

Key Challenges

One of the primary obstacles the BJP faces in Kerala is the lack of community polarization. Unlike in other states, communities in Kerala have not yet become deeply divided along political lines, making it difficult for Modi to rally support through small promises like infrastructure development.

Another critical challenge is cross-voting, especially in areas where the BJP may seem likely to win. In such instances, the Communists and Congress are often seen aligning against the BJP to counter any potential victory. This polarization is particularly concerning, especially given Kerala's high literacy rate and progressive governance.

Strategic Approaches

To overcome these challenges, the BJP must focus on several key strategic approaches.

Big Project Announcements

The BJP needs to announce and implement big projects in constituencies where they see potential for victory. For example:

Announce a fully-funded metro project for Thiruvananthapuram. Promote the establishment of an All India Institute of Medical Sciences in Thrissur, given the heavy demand for quality healthcare in the region. Promise to fully fund the Sabari Rail project in Pathanamthitta, ensuring its completion with central government funding.

By implementing these large-scale projects, the BJP can significantly enhance its visibility and improve its standing in the eyes of the electorate.

Effective Marketing and Visibility

The BJP must market these projects aggressively and ensure their completion well before the next election in 2029. This will help to raise the party's profile in Kerala and build a strong foundation for future success.

Recent Developments

As of mid-January 2024, Kerala stands a good chance of securing 2–3 seats, particularly in Thrissur, Thiruvananthapuram, and Pathanamthitta. Palakkad and Kasaragod are also showing promising signs of BJP support, although these areas historically lean left-wing. The recent visits by Prime Minister Modi have also influenced the grassroots dynamics, especially in Thrissur, where the BJP is targeting women and other newly added voter segments.

Conclusion

The upcoming Lok Sabha election in Kerala will be a crucial test for the BJP. While the party is optimistic about some constituencies, real strategy and implementation of substantial projects are necessary to overcome the challenges of cross-voting and community polarization. By focusing on effective project implementation and strategic marketing, the BJP can enhance its chances of securing some seats in Kerala in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.