Will Brexit Help Boris Johnson Win the Next Election?

The question of whether Brexit will help Boris Johnson win the next election in the UK is complex, given the current political landscape and the evolving nature of the issue. Boris Johnson, having succeeded Theresa May as the Prime Minister, has been at the helm of UK's exit from the European Union. However, the situation on the ground is rapidly changing, with Brexit becoming a double-edged sword in the eyes of the British electorate.

Current Political Climate

Currently, Boris Johnson does not face significant opposition within the Conservative Party, which means he can likely act unilaterally and still secure victory. However, if the opposition proposes measures to overturn Brexit or opts for a so-called 'Brexit Inside the Northern Ireland Protocol' (BINO), it could change the electoral dynamics. In such a scenario, support for Boris Johnson might wane as voters favor a stable stance on Brexit.

One might wonder if the Conservative Party will still support Boris Johnson in 2024. While there is uncertainty, some ministers like Priti Patel, Liz Truss, and Rishi Sunak may take positions that could strengthen the government's hold on power. These individuals could help consolidate the majority and implement more conservative policies, paving the way for a smoother Conservative Party future.

Project Fear and Aftermath of Brexit

Recalling the "Project Fear" campaign that was used during the 2016 Brexit referendum, many of the consequences of leaving the EU (such as economic fears) have yet to fully materialize. With the emergence of the Corona virus and the subsequent economic recession, the British public will be more focused on immediate concerns like public health and job security. Consequently, the Brexit debate may fade into the background in the wake of these pressing issues.

Re-joining the EU: A Persistent Threat

Despite the current lack of serious calls for a second referendum, the idea of re-joining the EU remains a significant wildcard. As younger voters who were not born during the Brexit debate become a larger portion of the electorate, the call for re-joining the EU is likely to grow. This could be a major challenge for Boris Johnson, who supports Brexit.

The conservative government's stance on Brexit means they may need to adapt in the future. Labour and the Liberal Democrats currently lack the radical position of re-joining the EU, but the issue could become more prominent. Therefore, the Conservative Party may eventually have to consider an option to maintain its relevance and voter base.

Sensationalist Media's Role

The role of sensationalist media in shaping public opinion and influencing elections cannot be overstated. Recent historical examples, such as the Cambridge Analytica scandal during the 2016 US presidential election, illustrate how media manipulation can sway voter decision-making. In the UK, similar tactics may continue to play a role in shaping public perceptions around Brexit and the Conservative Party's position on the issue.

In conclusion, while Brexit has been a central issue in recent Conservative election campaigns, its importance may wane in the 2024 election as the UK faces more immediate challenges. However, the Conservative Party must be prepared to address the escalating calls for re-joining the EU, especially as the younger generation becomes more politically active.