Can We Send a Human Colony to Mars? Technological Feasibility and Financial Challenges

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Technological Feasibility

Since the moon landing in 1969, the answer has been almost a resounding yes. The primary challenge that remained unsolved was supersonic retropropulsion, which involves firing rockets in a braking direction at supersonic speeds in an atmospheric environment similar to that of Mars.

Mars presents a unique challenge to entry, descent, and landing (EDL) systems, as its atmosphere is not thick enough for parachutes to provide sufficient braking, yet it is thick enough to incinerate a vehicle without proper heat shielding. However, as of 2015, SpaceX has demonstrated significant progress with its booster return flights, where the Falcon 9 booster successfully performs re-entry burns in conditions very similar to those encountered on Mars.

An engineer confirms that SpaceX has the capability to land on Mars, stating "Can SpaceX really land on Mars? Absolutely." With the necessary technology demonstrated, all that remains is the issue of cost.

Radiation Shielding Challenges

Mars missions expose astronauts to a significantly higher level of radiation compared to missions to the International Space Station (ISS). While the level of radiation is still considered acceptable for ISS missions, it presents a significant challenge for Mars missions. The current level of radiation exposure is about an order of magnitude higher, necessitating more robust shielding measures. Technically, mass can be used to mitigate radiation exposure, either by adding more propellant to reduce transit time, more shielding material, or a combination of both. Liquid hydrogen fuel can serve as an effective shielding material.

With an unlimited budget, it is reasonable to assume that these radiation shielding issues can be addressed. However, in the context of a mission with a limited budget, current mass-effective radiation shielding solutions are lacking, posing a significant risk to crew safety.

Financial Challenges and Mars Direct Mission Plan

Despite the technological feasibility, the road to Mars colonization faces significant financial hurdles. No country or private entity currently has the financial resources to undertake such a monumental task. SpaceX, however, has expressed a strong commitment to bringing humans to Mars by 2028. Their revised mission plans are expected to be more cost-effective, aiming to prevent the company from going bankrupt while making the mission feasible.

The Mars Direct mission plan proposes launching two missions per cycle. The first consists of a habitat and a return vehicle. The return vehicle would land on Mars, start producing fuel for the return mission, and remain on the planet for future missions. The second mission, a year later, would launch a crew of 4-6 individuals in a habitat module. Near this module, another return vehicle would be pre-positioned for the next mission. Once the crew lands, they will perform their work and return using the return vehicle, which then becomes part of the colony.

This cycle is repeated indefinitely, with habitats accumulating over time to form a sustained human presence on Mars. Habs would be linked up, creating space for more people to reside for longer periods and potentially for lifetimes, thus forming a colony.

Conclusion

The technological and financial challenges to sending a human colony to Mars are significant but not insurmountable. With a dedicated financial commitment and strategic planning, a human colony on Mars could become a reality in the coming decades. SpaceX's optimistic timeline and the Mars Direct mission plan present a roadmap towards achieving this goal.