Canada’s Defense Strategy: F-23 Versus Gripen for Local Production and International Sale

As Canada grapples with significant defense budget increases and evaluates its fighter replacement options, the discussion around purchasing production rights for the F-23 or leveraging the Gripen E/F has gained prominence. Like many nations, Canada may be reconsidering its fighter update plans, given the near-trillion-dollar debt increase anticipated post-COVID.

Post-COVID Era and Fighter Replacement

Before the pandemic, the case for procuring the F-23—a modeled variant of the F-22—seemed plausible. However, current financial realities suggest a cancellation of the fighter replacement project. Canadians can expect a delay in the transition from CF-18s, which still have operational utility for another two decades. After that, issues similar to those faced by New Zealand may arise, where fast jet capabilities are no longer viable.

The Canadian Aerospace Industry

The Canadian aerospace sector is inadequate for undertaking large-scale development projects like the F-23. The F-23 prototype never progressed beyond its developmental stage. The journey from prototype to series production and squadron service requires immense resources and expertise, tasks that may be too daunting for the local industry to handle. If Canada were to embrace the F-22 for production, significant benefits could arise, such as modernizing sensor fusion capabilities.

An Unlikely Business Idea

Purchasing production rights for an undeveloped and unprofitable aircraft prototype, aiming to export it to countries that already possess a more advanced combat-capable product, poses significant challenges. While intriguing, this strategy might not align well with current Canadian defense priorities. The government’s attention is better focused on practical, usable solutions rather than unproven, expensive ventures.

The Best Practical Choice: Gripen E/F

Considering the needs and capabilities required for Canada’s defense, the Swedish-made Gripen E/F presents a robust and viable option. Currently, the Gripen is being developed and manufactured in Brazil and Sweden, offering a global perspective on its design and production. The aircraft features a US engine, ensuring operational versatility and reliability in Canada’s defense environment. Furthermore, its current development and manufacturing stages make it a more suitable and immediate solution compared to attempting to revive the F-23.

The Costs and Challenges of Revival

The F-23, as a prototype designed decades ago, faces significant modernization hurdles. Many of its systems are outdated and possibly no longer produced. An extensive revamp from prototype to operational aircraft would be incredibly costly and time-consuming, potentially reaching around $500M to $1B per aircraft. In contrast, the Gripen E/F is a proven design with ongoing updates and improvements, making it a more practical and cost-effective choice for Canada.

Ultimately, Canada should focus on pragmatic and well-researched defense strategies that enhance its military capabilities without incurring exorbitant costs or unnecessary technological risks. The Canadian government and industry must collaborate to identify the best options for meeting defense needs, be it through local production of Gripen E/F or other viable solutions within the current technological landscape.