Effectiveness of Russian-Syrian Air Defense Upgrades: An Analysis

The recent upgrade of Russia's air defense systems in Syria has drawn significant attention, particularly regarding its implications for nearby nations like Israel. However, the real question is, how significant a threat does this enhancement pose?

Historical Context: Russian Systems vs. American Countermeasures

It is important to place the current discussions within a historical context. Despite claims from Russian apologists about the effectiveness of advanced Russian defense systems, the reality is that these systems have not fared well against American offensive weapons.

For example, the MiG 21, designed to intercept and destroy B-52 strategic bombers, fell far short in Vietnam in 1972-73. The score ended with 0 MiGs against 5 B-52s. Similarly, during the Gulf War in 1991, Russian super-tanks met their match against the US Army's M1 Abrams tanks, with the latter destroying the Russian equipment with no losses on their side.

Recent Encounters and Their Implications

The effectiveness of the Russian-Syrian integrated air defense system can be gauged by looking at specific past engagements, particularly the 2018 US missile strikes on Syria.

During this attack, the White House claimed that over 100 cruise missiles were launched, with 71 claimed to have been shot down by Russian defenses. However, reliable sources such as the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) caught the attacks on camera, providing a clearer picture of what actually transpired.

The chemical weapons research center in Damascus, a key target, with a three-story structure in a three-acre area, was hit by five missiles according to the Pentagon. However, SOHR footage shows only five distinct missile strikes. It is reasonable to believe that the Russian/Syrian defenses shot down around 17 missiles, effectively halving the initial number of missiles launched.

Verification and Reporting

The evidence from the 2018 strike suggests that the Russian/Syrian air defenses were indeed effective. However, it's important to consider the reliability of the sources. SOHR has a track record for accurate reporting and had cameras set up to document the strikes.

Much of this evidence is bolstered by the presence of downed and unexploded missiles from the attack, many of which can be clearly identified as Tomahawks and Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSM) from various angles captured by camera footage. These missiles primarily remain intact, confirming their identity.

Conclusion: What Does the Evidence Suggest?

Given the evidence, it is clear that the Russian/Syrian air defenses have successfully intercepted a significant portion of the incoming missiles. However, their effectiveness is a matter of perspective, and how one interprets the conflicting reports.

It seems that, while the Russian systems are not invincible, they have proven to be a formidable adversary to American missiles. This reality is essential to consider when assessing the potential future military situations in the region.

Keywords

Russia Syria Air Defense Upgrades US Missile Strikes Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR)