How Is Putin Likely to React to the Ukrainian Incursion in Kursk? A Strategic Analysis

This analysis explores likely strategic responses from Russian leader Vladimir Putin to an ongoing Ukrainian incursion in Kursk. Given the context of propaganda and limited lip service, Putin's actions are scrutinized to understand his likely next moves.

Propaganda and Initial Engagement

With all they've got—propaganda and lip service—Russian forces are approaching the Ukrainian Army with renewed vigor. This indicates that Putin may continue to stomp on the Ukrainian military to assert dominance in the region.

Containment and Monitoring

Russian sources suggest that elite Ukrainian troops have been restricted to a specific area, prevented from advancing or retreating. This strategy is aimed at simultaneously monitoring the Sumy border region, ensuring that neither the enemy can enter nor exit Kursk.

Aggressive Tactics and Combat Operations

The Russian approach includes launching aggressive combat operations, targeting an estimated 300 Ukrainian troops per day. By eliminating key forces, Putin aims to weaken the Ukrainian resistance significantly. This could pave the way for rapid advances in Donbass.

Domestic Attrition and Exhaustion

Around 9,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed in Kursk, with approximately 15,000 more entering the region. However, the Ukrainian troops are not engaging in offensive actions due to a lack of manpower, weapons, and ammunition. Such attrition could lead to the natural collapse of the Kursk bulge.

Continued Push in Donbas

The Russian strategy extends to maintaining control over Donbas, even as Ukrainian forces are pushed back. By vigorously bombarding and maintaining territorial control, Putin hopes to stifle any Ukrainian counteroffensive in the long winter months, potentially cutting off the region entirely.

Ultimate Objectives and Propaganda

Ultimately, Putin's goal is to ensure the collapse of the Kursk bulge, after which more intensive attacks are expected in Donbas. With the extermination of all "Ukroshitoids," Putin’s propaganda campaign suggests an intention to utterly destroy Ukrainian forces, marking a worrying escalation in the conflict.

Conclusion

The ongoing incursion in Kursk is part of a broader strategic plan by Putin to assert Russian control over strategic territories. The weakened state of Ukrainian forces, combined with aggressive propaganda tactics, suggests a tactical approach that could quickly escalate into a full-scale offensive in Donbas. This analysis underscores the complex geopolitical situation, highlighting the potential for further escalation.