Price Trends of DDR4 and DDR5: When Will DDR4 Prices Drop After DDR5 Hits the Market?

The release of DDR5 has sparked numerous discussions about the timeline for DDR4 prices to drop. The market timeline for DDR4 to become less expensive after the introduction of DDR5 can vary significantly based on several factors, including market demand, production volumes, and adoption rates. Typically, in the months following the release of a new generation of RAM, like DDR5, DDR4 prices may begin to decrease as manufacturers shift their focus to the newer technology and as the supply becomes more available.

Historical Context and Expected Timeline

Historically, significant price drops for older memory types often occur between six to twelve months after the launch of a new generation. However, if DDR5 adoption is slower than expected or if DDR4 continues to maintain high demand, particularly in budget systems, the price drop for DDR4 may be more gradual, taking a bit longer to materialize.

For instance, FIFO (First In, First Out) memory pricing is a telling example. In 2013, DDR3 FIFO was initially more expensive than DDR3 due to its premium and practical applications. Over the years, as the technology became more widespread and other RAM generations reached maturity, FIFO DDR3 prices began to decrease over the next few years. This pattern is likely to be replicated with DDR4 and DDR5, given the similar evolution in technology and market dynamics.

Economic and Market Factors Influencing DDR4 Prices

In the short term, DDR4 prices are currently at record lows, and there’s little reason to predict further significant drops. As consumers and businesses become aware of the high cost associated with DDR5 and the relatively modest performance improvements it offers, this may shift the demand for DDR4, potentially leading to price increases. For example, we could see 16GB DDR4–3200 that is currently priced at $55, rise to $70 by early January.

Manufacturers often introduce a premium on the initial retail prices of new technologies to capitalize on the high demand. Therefore, the DDR5 memory kits will likely start at a premium when they are released due to this demand-driven enhancing. Regardless of the initial markup, other factors such as the anticipated 40% increase in NAND and DRAM prices by the end of Q4 compared to the first quarter of 2020, will further contribute to rising memory prices.

Long-Term Price Trends and Expectations

Historically, price drops for older technology generally trend downward as new upgrades become mainstream. As DDR5 becomes more accessible and widely adopted, it’s expected that DDR4 prices will gradually decrease. However, the exact timeline will depend on market conditions and demand.

Generally, it takes about six to eight months after the release for pricing to stabilize and start to decrease. During this period, prices might drop slightly during smaller sales or discounts. More significant price drops are usually observed shortly before a major technology upgrade, such as Easter, 4th of July, Back to School, Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year’s.

Conclusion and Recommendations

In summary, you can expect DDR4 prices to start decreasing within three to six months after the market introduction of DDR5. However, substantial reductions are more likely to occur after one year as the market shifts towards DDR5.

Given the current market trends, it may be wise to purchase as much DDR4 as needed and within budget before the next week. As the technology evolves and new generations of RAM are released, older memory types tend to become cheaper over time, but the transition period can be variable.

Disclaimer: While my advice is based on current market trends and historical data, I am not a professional dedicated to the most current research and development of these topics. I will do my best to fact check my postings before making any recommendations. All of my posts will be unbiased to the best of my availability as I am human, and there may be times where I will make a mistake. However, my postings/replies will reflect the best advice I can provide from my current perspective.