Space Exploration: Will NASA, ESA, and Commercial Companies Join SpaceX in Exploring Mars?

The idea of colonizing Mars has captured the public imagination for years. With big players like SpaceX leading the way, many wonder if other key players, including NASA and ESA, as well as commercial entities like Axiom Space, will also get involved. However, the reality is far more complex and nuanced than a simple 'yes' or 'no'.

Profit and the Definition of Colony

First, it's important to clarify what it means to 'colonize' Mars. The term 'colonize' typically implies the establishment of a self-sustaining human community, which economically is not achievable without significant profit. Profit is a central component of the concept of a colony.

Neither government agencies nor commercial companies will likely take on the mantle of colonizing Mars, the moon, or any other celestial body purely for the sake of it. The rationale is that these endeavors do not yield the financial returns necessary for sustaining a colony, especially when compared to the challenges involved.

NASA and ESA: Government Agendas vs. Business Models

Government agencies like NASA and ESA have a different mandate. They are tasked with advancing scientific knowledge and exploration, not necessarily for profit. However, they still need to navigate practical constraints, such as budget limitations and the reliance on private sector partners for space missions.

NASA, for instance, has been exploring Mars for decades and has been working towards a manned mission to the planet much longer than SpaceX. While they have ambitions to explore Mars, they do not build or own rockets. Instead, they rely on private companies like Boeing, SpaceX, and Northrop-Grumman to launch their payloads into space.

The Role of SpaceX and Other Commercial Companies

Commercial companies like SpaceX, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and others are driven by profit and are limited in their exploration capabilities without significant funding. SpaceX, a company with investors, is vulnerable to the same economic constraints as others. While they are leading the charge in some areas, they too must operate within the confines of their financial stability.

SpaceX, as an example, has not built deep space exploration missions, such as the ones involved in Mars exploration. However, it is starting to make inroads. SpaceX is now trusted to conduct its first deep space launch for NASA, the Psyche mission, set to launch in 2022. This marks a significant step in the company's role as a partner in space exploration rather than a primary driver.

The Future of Mars Exploration: Cases for and Against

Given these realities, it is reasonable to predict that SpaceX is likely to get further contracts from NASA to deliver exploration missions to Mars. NASA and other government agencies will continue to fund and manage these missions, with commercial companies providing the necessary rockets and logistical support.

But can SpaceX explore on its own? The answer is no. Even if SpaceX were to build and deploy a Mars rover, it would need significant funding, which might not be available. The nature of deep space exploration does not align with the profit-driven model that businesses typically follow.

Other commercial companies, meanwhile, are already involved in Mars exploration. SpaceX is not a newcomer to this field; it is part of a broader ecosystem of companies working together towards the common goal of exploring and potentially colonizing Mars.

In essence, while the allure of Mars continues to inspire both colonizers and explorers, the practical realities suggest that it will be government agencies like NASA and ESA, along with a consortium of commercial companies, working together to achieve these goals.