Technology Progress: How Much Faster in the 2020s?

Technology has been advancing at a breathtaking pace, and many wonder if this trend will accelerate even further in the coming years. Daniel Fishman provides insight into this question, offering a nuanced view of technological advancement.

Faster, But Not Dramatically So

Yes, technology is progressing rapidly, and its advancements will outpace those of previous decades. However, this acceleration is not linear; it's an exponential growth where each step builds on the previous one, making the pace seem breakneck to those from earlier eras.

Consider the evolution of smartphones. Just eleven years ago, the smartphones we recognize today were not even in existence. A 42-inch flatscreen television cost an astounding $17,000 20 years ago. Now, you can get a high-quality, comparable display for around $300, representing a mere 5.6% of the original price. In contrast, a 25-inch color TV in 1975 cost $740, and in 1995 it was $500. While cars are more expensive now, they also last longer on average.

The Bull Market and Innovation

We're currently in what many are calling a bull market, which is incredibly favorable for technological advancements. Higher stock prices, increased venture capital funding, and a lower risk tolerance for new technologies all contribute to a fertile environment for innovation.

In a bull market, large corporations like Apple and Google can focus more on long-term innovation and diversification of their product lines. This allows them to keep pace with startups, which enjoy easier access to funding to develop disruptive technologies. This is in stark contrast to the bear markets that followed the dot-com bubble in 2000 and the Great Recession of 2007.

The Impact of Economic Cycles on Innovation

While a bear market forces companies to focus on their core competencies, leading to a 'soul-searching' transformation, a bull market provides both opportunities and challenges. During expansions, companies are more willing to redefine themselves through exploration of new technologies and markets. Conversely, during contractions, they are motivated to cut costs and reevaluate less productive investments.

The Great Recession officially ended in June 2009, but its ripple effects were felt until 2013. It took several years for the global economy to recover. Now, as the economy is thriving again, we're seeing a resurgence in rapid technological innovation, promising a new era of prolonged prosperity.

Conclusion

While the pace of technological progress is indeed accelerating, it is not a steady climb. The current economic environment, marked by a bull market, is favorable for innovation and expansion. As we continue to navigate the cycles of economic growth and contraction, the future holds great potential for further technological advancements.

References:
- Fishman, D. (Year). Is technology drastically progressing and will it go even faster year by year? [Blog post]. Retrieved from [Website URL].
- [Name of source for economic cycles and technological innovation] [Retrieved on date].

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