The CAlgary Split and Saudi Arabia’s Loyalty to Donald Trump: A Contested Narrative

Given the significant geopolitical shifts in recent times, the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Canada is a prime example of how political and strategic considerations often transcend traditional loyalties. The sudden frostiness in their relations has left many confounded, questioning the motivations behind the move. Given the current political climate, it is essential to examine the nuances of this complex relationship.

The Trump Factor

Firstly, the idea that Saudi Arabia's actions are driven by a deep-seated loyalty to Donald Trump appears to be a stretch. The relationship between Saudi Arabia and Canada has always been rooted in strategic military cooperation and economic interests. However, the dismissal of any political developments with Trump at the helm can also be oversimplified. Politics, as we well know, often create strange bedfellows, and the Saudi leadership may be attempting to align with a powerful figure in the pursuit of their specific interests.

Consider, for instance, the fact that Saudi Arabia has been the second-largest supplier of military hardware to Canada. It stands to reason that they may seek to fill this gap following their boycott. This strategic move is indicative of how economic considerations often play a crucial role in international relationships, as seen in the way Saudi Arabia might be trying to navigate the complexities of their own reforms and geopolitical positioning.

Strategic Motivations and New Leadership

More likely, Saudi Arabia’s actions are a reflection of the new Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS)’s desire to establish a strong and independent position within the region. The shift in loyalty, if we interpret it that way, is more about MbS consolidating power and making a clear statement about Saudi Arabia's future. This is not merely a reaction to rhetoric, but a strategic move to project the kingdom's newfound authority and assertiveness.

Under MbS, Saudi Arabia is undergoing significant cultural and political changes. The relaxation of the Mutaween religious police and the granting of new rights to women are but a few indicators of this transformation. In a delicate balancing act, MbS must maintain the support of the royal family, appease the armed forces and secure the allegiance of key economic stakeholders like AARAMCO, while also navigating the expectations of a younger, more progressive populace.

American Political Shenanigans and Social Media Impact

The loyalty of Saudi Arabia to Donald Trump is a complex matter. "Loyalty," as interpreted by the Saudi leadership, is not a matter of personal support or allegiance but rather a strategic alliance of convenience. Just as the Trump family rules together and Trump’s cronies revel in the looting of America, Saudi Arabia's 'loyalty' aligns with the preservation of their own interests.

The sudden split with Canada might be seen as a clumsy attempt to demonstrate strength and assert dominance. However, this move might be backfiring. Contrary to the intended scare, Justin Trudeau and the Canadian populace have stood firm, doubling down on their resolve. It’s a reminder that while the language of power and dominance might resonate with some, especially in regions more accustomed to such dynamics, it often fails to sway the opinion of Western nations and global public opinion.

Summary

The recent rift between Saudi Arabia and Canada can be better understood by examining the strategic motivations behind it. While the relationship is not solely about loyalty to Donald Trump, the rapid changes in the Saudi political landscape, particularly under MbS, are a significant factor. The move to distance themselves from Canada is a strategic play to project power, consolidate internal support, and assert their position in the broader Middle Eastern and global context.

Ultimately, understanding the complexities of this relationship requires a nuanced and layered analysis, considering the shifting tides of power and the intricate web of international alliances.