The Cuban Missile Crisis and the Doomsday Clock: What Would the Clock Have Shown?

The Doomsday Clock, maintained by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, is a symbolic representation of humanity's proximity to nuclear disaster. During the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis, tensions between the United States and the Soviet Union escalated to unprecedented levels, bringing the world to the brink of nuclear war.

At that time, the Doomsday Clock was set to seven minutes to midnight, reflecting the heightened risk of nuclear conflict. If the Doomsday Clock had the ability to respond to the escalating tensions during the crisis, it is highly probable that it would have been moved significantly closer to midnight, potentially as close as two or three minutes to midnight. This period marked a critical moment in the Cold War, characterized by volatile military mobilizations, the deployment of nuclear weapons, and a pervasive atmosphere of fear and uncertainty.

Understanding the Tensions and the Clock's Movement

During the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists faced the challenge of presenting daily occurrences rather than general trends. Given the extreme volatility and the very real possibility of nuclear engagement, it is likely that the Clock would have moved significantly closer to midnight. The Bulletin's publication at the time had actually moved the Clock back to 12 minutes, reflecting the successful resolution of the crisis. This resolution, however, was not without significant events, including the close call that occurred on the 27th of October.

The Man Who Saved the World: Vasili Arkhipov

The crisis was successfully resolved, but it was not without its close calls. In a critical moment, Vasili Arkhipov, known as "the man who saved the world," played a crucial role. Due to US depth charges, two Soviet captains aboard a submarine believed that World War III had already begun. They sought to launch a nuclear-tipped torpedo, but Arkhipov, refusing to give the order, convinced them not to. This event underscores the need for a "human circuit breaker" in an age where technology increasingly plays a central role in decision-making processes.

Additional Close Calls During the Cold War

The Cuban Missile Crisis was far from the only incident that brought the world close to nuclear disaster. Another notable close call was the incident involving Stanislav Petrov, who is credited as "the man who saved the world" for his actions during the 1983 Soviet false alarm. Petrov, working alone in a control center, withheld a report of a nuclear launch, believing it to be a false alarm. This event highlights the critical role of human judgment in ensuring global security.

These events and the aftermath of the Cuban Missile Crisis, including the development of a dedicated communication line between the two superpowers, underscore the need for improved nuclear deterrence and international cooperation. The challenges of the Cold War era serve as a reminder of the importance of such efforts to prevent nuclear catastrophe.

Conclusion

The Cuban Missile Crisis, while a critical moment in the Cold War, also provides valuable insights into the risks of nuclear conflict and the need for robust systems of nuclear deterrence and human oversight. The Doomsday Clock serves as a powerful symbol of this urgency. As we look to the future, it is important to reflect on these lessons and continue working towards peace and security.