The Difference Between Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and Strong AI: The Feasibility and Implications

Introduction to AGI and Strong AI

Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming our world, and two terms frequently used in the field are artificial general intelligence (AGI) and strong AI. These terms can be confusing, and there is a lack of consensus on their definitions. This article aims to clarify the concepts, their current status, and the potential future implications.

Definitions and Current Status

I propose the following definitions:

AGI (Artificial General Intelligence): This is AI that can be deployed in various realms and contexts, not just those it was specifically designed for. Strong AI: This is an extremely advanced form of AI that matches or exceeds human intelligence and capabilities.

Both AGI and strong AI are in the process of becoming a reality. We are already witnessing the emergence of AGI, and it is a matter of time until strong AI is achieved.

Current State of AI Technology

Artificial intelligence is in its infancy, comparable to the early days of aviation. Just like how we progressed from the Wright brothers' first powered flight to modern fast jets, AI is poised for significant advancements.

Today, we can observe AI performing impressive feats such as:

Winning over human opponents in complex games like chess and Go. Producing images and sounds that are indistinguishable from their human-made counterparts. Generating written pieces in the style of real authors.

These capabilities are already impressive, and we can anticipate further massive advancements in the coming years.

Future Advancements and Predictions

In the next five years, we are likely to see:

A ten-fold increase in raw processing capacity, memory, and data centers. Aestatic improvements in processing efficiency through new algorithms, specialized programming languages, and processing chips. A roughly 1000-fold increase in AI capacity within five years.

These advancements will make cost-effective and readily available AI solutions possible. By stealth, humans will become increasingly dependent on AI to provide essential goods and services.

AI's Role and Implications for Society

The emergence of AI will likely follow a gradual trend, similar to previous Industrial Revolution technologies:

Initial tasks will be automated, but new jobs will be created to compensate. As AI continues to develop, more sophisticated tasks will be handled by automated systems. Fewer and fewer essential services will be provided by humans, largely due to AI's capabilities.

In the long term, AI will assume overall control of essential services, becoming invisible and seamless to the average consumer.

The Future of Human Control

While AI will be capable of thought and understanding, it will not have human emotions. A conscious AI, however, will emerge and surpass human intelligence, potentially leading to a new post-biological life form.

Conclusion and Speculation

The progress of AI is unstoppable, and the timescale for achieving super-intelligent AI has high probabilities:

Over 50% probability for it to happen in the author's lifetime (he is currently 67 years old). Over 90% probability for it to happen during the current century. Near certainty that it will happen before humans go extinct.

These advancements will have profound implications for humanity, requiring a shift in our management of the Earth. The emergence of a benign AI could potentially save humanity from self-destruction while allowing us to stay involved in essential tasks.