The EU's Attempts to Take Advantage of the UK During the Brexit Transition Period

The United Kingdom's transition period allows the European Union (EU) to leverage the UK, but it is increasingly becoming clear that this approach will fail. This period has seen a significant shift in legal and political dynamics, with both parties adapting to new conditions.

Changes in Legal and Political Dynamics

During the standstill transition period, the UK's relationship with the EU is governed by Article 218, which applies to third countries. This legal basis marks a departure from the previous Article 50, which governed the UK's relationship as an EU member state. The EU now uses process pressure points and deadlines to secure its interests.

Deadline for Extension: 30 June 2020

The first major deadline for the UK is on 30 June 2020, when the government will seek to extend the standstill transition period into 2021 or 2022. An extension requires EU approval, and it will come with conditions. Key contentious issues include fishing rights and budgetary contributions. The EU will not agree to an extension without resolving these matters.

Budgetary Contributions and Ongoing Payments

The UK currently has agreed to ongoing annual payments only up to 31 December 2020. Beyond that, new payments must be negotiated, with no established formula for calculating these amounts. These extra budget payments are beyond those contractually agreed in the withdrawal agreement. Any extension of the transition period will require a reassessment of these financial arrangements.

The Impending Deadline: 31 December 2022

Absent an extension, the next major deadline is 31 December 2022, when the UK will automatically exit the customs union and the single market. Separate arrangements apply to Northern Ireland. Any extension beyond these arrangements will require an Article 218 treaty change, and it will necessitate ratification by all EU national parliaments, regional parliaments, and automatic referendums in some member states.

The Road Ahead: Domestic Challenges and International Prospects

The immediate period ahead for the UK is marked by domestic political tensions, parliamentary votes, and laborious negotiations. Further delays and ministerial incompetence are likely. The road ahead also includes challenges in implementing new frontier infrastructure and facing repeated crunch deadlines.

Uncertain Prospects for US Trade Talks

Talks on a UK-US trade deal are unlikely to start in 2020 due to the US presidential election year. Formal negotiations may begin later in 2021, contingent on the election results. As such, the UK's focus remains on domestic issues and the EU relationship during this critical transitional period.