The Future of Email: Will We Ever Stop Using It?

In many ways, consumers have already moved away from traditional email. SMS Push notifications and in-app notifications have largely taken over as the primary means of communication between individuals. However, email still holds a significant place in Business-to-Business (B2B) communications.

Will Email Eventually Disappear?

The question of whether email will eventually become obsolete is often debated. It is more likely that email will become less popular over a extended period as newer communication methods become more prevalent. The decline of email would require a series of specific events to take place.

The Problem with Spam

One of the biggest issues with email is the prevalence of unsolicited commercial emails (UCE), commonly referred to as spam. These messages are often ignored or outright despised by recipients. The term 'Shit Parading As Meat' (SPAM), used by some, does not make such content any more acceptable.

How Does Spam Impact Email?

Many spam senders do not pay for the bandwidth they use to send these messages. Instead, they use botnets and stolen computing resources. The recipients, who pay for an internet connection, are also responsible for the bandwidth usage. If email goes away, it would be replaced with a system where the people sending spam would have to pay for their content. One way to achieve this would be through an escrow service.

Escrow Service and Bandwidth Costs

Content could be stored on a third-party server for a fee, eliminating the need to store messages directly in recipients' inboxes. This system would shift the financial burden from the recipients to the senders. The server would incur significant bandwidth costs if inundated with requests for spam content. To mitigate this, the number of allowable downloads could be limited, ensuring that senders pay only for what they deliver.

Challenges and Solutions

Several challenges need to be addressed for such a system to work:

Signatures and Content Verification: How can recipients ensure that the content they download is what was actually sent? Blockchain signatures could be used to verify the authenticity of the content. If the signature does not match the downloaded content, the email would not be displayed, and neither the bandwith nor money would be wasted. Content Deletion After Downloads: What if the sender deletes the content after a certain number of downloads? This could be prevented by a distributed content network similar to Usenet, where content can be downloaded from any member for a set period of time. This ensures content is available for a limited time, preventing indefinite use. Filtering Spam: Subscriptions to blacklist services could help recipients determine if a content signature is for spam before downloading it. This would allow them to avoid unnecessary bandwidth usage.

Is This Solution Feasible?

The transition to such a system is not without its challenges. It would need to compete with other potential solutions, such as ISPs moving towards charging for bandwidth instead of data usage. If ISPs were to start charging based on the amount of data used (bandwidth caps), rather than the speed (diameter of the pipe), email would become less relevant.

There is also the issue of net neutrality, which would commoditize the internet as dumb pipes, making content irrelevant to ISPs. Currently, large content providers, like Comcast, can offer both ISP and content services, complicating the issue. For a clear separation, ISPs would need to be barred from providing content, which is unlikely with the current leadership at the FCC.

Given the current political climate, it is unlikely that Congress will step in to address these issues. Without significant changes in leadership or regulation, the future of email remains uncertain.

Conclusion

While the future of email is complex and uncertain, there are potential solutions to address the issues caused by spam. Whether through technological advancements or regulatory changes, the shift to a system where content senders must pay for their content could provide a better alternative to the current model of unsolicited commercial emails.