The Future of Mobile Processing Power: Can a Smartphone Ever Match NVIDIA's A100?

It isn't out of the realm of reality at all. The advancements in transistor technology, coupled with the growing popularity of mobile computing, are making it increasingly possible to imagine a future where a smartphone could match the processing power of the NVIDIA A100, a supercomputer-class GPU.

The Current State of Transistor Technology

The NVIDIA A100 has 52 billion transistors manufactured at 8nm, while the Apple M1 features 16 billion transistors at 5nm. With the upcoming M1X expected to be close to 20 billion transistors, the stepping stone towards further miniaturization is clear. Scaling down to 3nm, an SoC the size of the M1X could easily contain around 40 billion transistors.

The current SOC designs are already in the 1 square centimeter range, and designs for 2023 or 2024 could potentially double or triple the transistor count at 5nm and quadruple it at 3nm. This highlights the remarkable progress in shrinking transistor size, with each new node reducing power consumption by around 30 times.

Key Challenges and Future Prospects

While it's hypothetically possible for a smartphone to match the A100's processing power through advancements in transistor technology, it would be a long and challenging journey. The current limits of transistor technology are expected to hit a barrier around the 2nm or 1.5nm node, where the microscopic and electrical properties of silicon will make further shrinkage impractical.

It's important to note that node names such as "7nm", "5nm", "2nm" are marketing terms and do not refer to any physical attribute of the transistor design.

Power Usage and Feasibility

The A100 uses 826mm2 and 250W of power, while a smartphone's SoC could feasibly be up to 200mm2 and use up to 5W. Die-shrinking the A100 to 1.5nm with technology available in the next 10 years might allow it to fit into a large phone, but at around 50W of power, it would be impractical as a mobile GPU. Optimistically, architectural improvements could reduce power usage by around 50% over 10 years, but this would still result in a 25W power consumption, far from sufficient for an A100-equivalent GPU.

To accommodate the power and performance of the A100 effectively, fundamentally new calculation methods such as quantum computing or advanced AI algorithms, or even a new transistor design like Nanoscale Vacuum Channel Transistors (NVCTs), would be required. While research is ongoing, the timeline for such breakthroughs remains uncertain.

Future Breakthroughs and Contingencies

Optimistically, if NVCTs allow microprocessors to run over 10 GHz within reasonable power limits, we might see mobile SoCs with GPUs as powerful as the A100 in around 20 years. A breakthrough in AI that leads to the "singularity" where AI surpasses human intelligence could accelerate this timeline, potentially bringing such powerful GPUs to mobile devices within a few years. However, this scenario also poses the risk of a global economic and societal upheaval.

More likely, it will take more than 30 years, or perhaps never, depending on the outcomes of ongoing research into quantum computing and NVCTs. The potential of these technologies may fall short of current expectations and fears, leaving us without the anticipated leap in mobile processing power.

Ultimately, the journey to achieving a smartphone with A100-equivalent processing power is fraught with challenges, technological uncertainties, and far-reaching implications for both technology and society.