The Future of the Belfast Border: Settled or in Possibility of Change?

The border that divides Northern Ireland from the Republic of Ireland has a long and complex history. Many have argued that it is unlikely to change due to its historical, political, and social significance. However, the debate on this topic remains alive, with varying opinions on its future.

Historical Context

Similar to the borders of Scotland and Wales, the Belfast Border was created in a way that did not encourage change. It was established by taking the six counties of Ireland that contained the majority of Irish unionists and making them a separate entity known as Northern Ireland. In the 1930s, there were attempts to change the border, but these were ultimately deemed too controversial and were scrapped.

Current Political Landscape

Over time, population movements and political shifts have influenced the demographics of Northern Ireland. These changes have tended to reduce unionist tendencies and moderate nationalism. This trend suggests that any change to the border would be unlikely to occur, except for the possibility of full unification between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

Theoretical Possibilities

While some argue that the border is unlikely to change, others have different opinions. A group of around 20 percent of the people in Northern Ireland, mostly in the northeastern region, favor a government with UK leadership. In contrast, the majority of people on the island of Ireland, approximately 70%, support a united Ireland, free from UK domination. History shows that when Ireland is under UK control, it often becomes a secondary concern to the power interests in London.

Voting Rights and Future Possibilities

The border can only change if the people of Northern Ireland vote to merge with the Republic of Ireland. The Good Friday Agreement grants them the right to call for a referendum at any time, provided there is a reasonable chance that the United Ireland vote would win. The process of unification would involve the disappearance of the border, as it would no longer be necessary.

Should a referendum be held and result in a majority vote for unification, the border would be transformed. In such a scenario, travel between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland would be seamless, much like traveling between different counties or provinces within any other country.

Land Ownership and Other Aspects

On a practical level, the land ownership along the border is settled. However, there are a few areas that are simply farms or public land, on both sides. While these areas could theoretically be sold off, it would not alter the tax payment responsibilities. For everyday travel, the border is effectively non-existent, similar to traveling between different regions within any country.

In summary, while the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland is currently settled, the possibility of change remains a topic of debate. The future depends on the political will and the outcome of any potential referendums or negotiations.