How Will Putin Extricate Russian Troops from Ukraine?

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The Russian invasion of Ukraine has brought unprecedented instability to the region, posing a significant threat not only to the people of Ukraine but also to Europe's peace and security. As the conflict drags on without a clear resolution, many are calling for a negotiated peace. However, the situation on the ground continues to deteriorate, with rising casualties and destruction.

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Costs of Continued War

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Some in the West advocate turning Ukraine into another Afghanistan, with the aim of crushing Russian military forces. However, this approach may come at a devastating cost to the Ukrainian people. Viktor Yushchenko, the former President and current speaker of Ukraine's parliament, once called for Western leaders to join Ukrainian soldiers in the fight against Russian aggression. This is a stark reminder of the human toll of such a conflict.

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Ukraine, a beautiful and culturally rich nation, has already suffered significantly. The hope now is that the war will soon end, allowing for the preservation of its integrity and sovereignty.

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Putin's Inevitable Consequences

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President Putin has painted himself and Russia into a difficult corner. In a mere week and a half of operations, his forces have already suffered losses far greater than those suffered by the United States during seven years of combat in Iraq. Such losses raise serious questions about the future of the Russian military presence in Ukraine.

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Putin’s ambition to impose a puppet government on Ukraine is destined to fail. The remaining Ukrainian population will fight to reclaim their homeland, bolstered by the support of NATO allies. They have the best trained, best supplied, and most motivated fighters the world has ever seen, complete with robust infrastructure in neighboring countries for recuperation, training, and resupply.

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The Fate of Putin and the Russian Military

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Putin stands as a danger to humanity. As the world faces the threat of nuclear conflict, the international community must act decisively to prevent the escalation of tensions. The world cannot afford another Chernobyl-style catastrophe.

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Given the futility of his current strategy, it is reasonable to believe that Putin is walking on thin ice. The Russian military may still achieve a tactical victory, but at a staggering cost to Ukraine and its people. Senior military officials may be considering a coup to halt the war. This is a realistic possibility, albeit one that may unfold in the coming months rather than immediately.

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The generals in charge are unlikely to tolerate such a prolonged conflict. They have the means and will to depose Putin, perhaps following in the footsteps of their attempt to depose Gorbachev. However, Putin is not Gorbachev. He lacks the intellectual prowess and charisma to withstand such a challenge, making a swift and decisive takeover by the military more likely.

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Post-Imperial Transformation

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Following Putin's removal, the Russian military may aim to transform Russia into a freer and more open society. They may consider reinstating Mikhail Gorbachev as a figurehead leader. This would signal a departure from the current authoritarian regime and pave the way for the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine and other occupied territories.

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The Russian military should be encouraged to hand control back to civilians as soon as possible. Free and democratic elections would be the best way to re-establish a legitimate government. The current constitution can be modified to balance power more evenly between the executive and legislative branches.

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International Community’s Role

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The international community, including the United States and European Union, must play a crucial role in ensuring a peaceful and stable resolution to the conflict. Offering economic and diplomatic support to Ukraine and nationalist groups during this transition could help stabilize the region.

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Ultimately, Putin's botched invasion has left him isolated and shown that his methods are ineffective. The Russian military must now embrace a new path for their country, one that aligns with global norms and values.

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