The Potential Impact of a Mega Political Alliance on the 2019 Indian General Election

The question of whether a mega political alliance could significantly impact the 2019 Indian General Election has sparked considerable debate. This article explores the potential outcomes if secular parties like Congress, SP, BSP, TMC, NCP, AAP, and AIMIM form a formidable alliance. Additionally, we discuss the potential involvement of groups such as Pakistan-based terrorist organizations and separatist organizations from Jammu and Kashmir. The analysis includes state-wise assessments of the potential outcomes, highlighting the severe repercussions for the current government.

The Significance of a Mega Alliance

Assuming that a mega political alliance includes parties such as Congress, SP, BSP, TMC, NCP, AAP, and AIMIM, along with Pakistan-based terrorist organizations and separatist groups, it could dramatically alter the landscape of the 2019 Indian General Election. The alliance, if well-coordinated and concentrated on their respective strongholds, could restrict the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to a maximum of 180-200 seats. This would be a significant blow to the NDA's chances of securing the required majority.

It is worth noting that while these parties are labeled as secular, their track records leave much to be desired. Despite this, a cooperative effort from all these parties could severely limit the number of seats the NDA could secure. This is especially true if the regional parties in Uttar Pradesh (UP), like SP, BSP, and RLD, join forces with incumbent parties like INC. This alliance could potentially reduce the NDA's stronghold in UP to as few as 35 seats.

State-wise Analysis

Uttar Pradesh (UP)

UP, with its complex political landscape, could be crucial for the success or failure of a mega alliance. The potential coalition of SP, BSP, and RLD (Rashtriya Lok Dal) could lead to a major challenge for the NDA. Although INC is not part of this alliance, the combined strength of SP, BSP, and RLD could push the NDA to a meager 35-45 seats. This outcome would be highly detrimental to the NDA's attempts to achieve a majority.

Bihar

Bihar has a formidable combination of JDU, BJP, and LJP, making it a stronghold for the NDA. However, an alliance of RJD, INC, RLD, SP, and BSP could theoretically counter this. The NDA, consisting of JDU, BJP, and LJP, is likely to secure more than 35 seats in this scenario, providing the NDA with enough seats to form a government.

Maharashtra

Maharashtra's political landscape could see several permutations. If Shiv Sena remains independent and forms an alliance with INC and NCP, the NDA might only secure around 20 seats. However, if Shiv Sena were to join the grand alliance, the NDA's chances would drop drastically, with it possibly securing less than 10 seats. This scenario is considered highly unlikely, given the current political climate.

West Bengal

In West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) might face a challenging time if it does not align with the communists. An alliance of TMC and INC could potentially pose a serious threat to the NDA. However, the strength of the BJP in West Bengal, even after Mamata Banerjee seeks external support, is likely to ensure the BJP's victory. The NDA may secure between 16 to 26 seats, while the opposing alliance is expected to secure the majority.

Tamil Nadu

Tamil Nadu's bipolar political scenario means that alliances are unlikely to materialize. The fight will be dominated by the UPA (Congress-led) and NDA (BJP-led), with DMK and AIDMK (All India Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam) not aligning together. If Rajnikant joins the NDA, the NDA's chances of winning would increase. In this scenario, both the UPA and NDA are poised to secure between 16 to 22 seats.

Each of these scenarios suggests that a mega political alliance could have a profound impact on the 2019 Indian General Election, potentially leading to a significant shift in power dynamics. While the potential for political chaos is high, the importance of a stable and cooperative political environment cannot be overstated.