The Reality of Sea Level Rise: Debunking Myths and Misconceptions

Introduction

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently warned that sea levels along the coastal USA will rise by one foot by 2050. However, the reality of sea level rise is a complex issue that often gets oversimplified or even misinterpreted. In this article, we will delve into the evidence, debunk common myths, and provide a balanced view on the current state of sea level rise.

The NOAA's Claims and Their Limitations

According to the NOAA, sea levels along the United States coastline are expected to rise one foot by 2050. However, this prediction is often criticized for its methodology and its alignment with observed data. The NOAA bases its predictions on computerized models, which can sometimes produce results that do not align with historical evidence.

It is important to note that sea levels have risen at a continuous rate of 2 millimeters per year since the last significant glacial melt approximately 10,000 years ago. This rate has remained remarkably consistent, even as the average global temperature has increased by less than 1.5 degrees Celsius over the past 300 years. This consistency is also supported by photographic records and cartography data, both of which show no noticeable rise in sea levels over the last 500 years.

Photographic and Cartographic Evidence

Photographic records and cartographic data provide a wealth of information on sea level changes. Since the invention of photography in 1836, countless photos and maps have been taken and recorded, and these records consistently show no significant rise in sea levels. Examples include historic photos of coastal areas, bays, harbors, inlets, estuaries, and coastlines, as well as detailed maps from the Age of Discovery in the 15th and 16th centuries.

To illustrate, a simple Google search comparing photographs of the Statue of Liberty from the day of her christening in 1886 with modern photographs reveals no noticeable rise in sea level. These images could easily be misinterpreted, but the actual evidence is clear and compelling.

The Role of Sunspots and Solar Activity

Given the ongoing solar cycle 25, which is expected to bring more sunspots and fewer solar storms, there is a misconception that this will lead to cooler weather and reduced oceanic temperature rise. This is a common belief among those who are skeptical of global warming. However, the impact of solar activity on global temperatures and sea levels is complex and not as straightforward as it might seem.

Current data shows that the rate of ocean rise is approximately 1/8 of an inch per year. If this rate continues for the next 30 years, the predicted ocean rise would be around 4 inches, not the 12 inches often cited in alarming reports. This modest rise, assuming no increase in evaporation, would impact very few coastal areas. However, evaporation is a factor that must be considered, as increased evaporation would offset the rise in seawater levels.

It is important to acknowledge that the ocean's ability to regulate temperature and sea levels is not influenced solely by solar activity. Other factors, such as ocean currents, atmospheric conditions, and human activities, all play a role in shaping the marine environment.

Conclusion

The reality of sea level rise is a complex and multi-faceted issue that requires a nuanced understanding of historical data, photographic evidence, and current scientific findings. While there is a need to remain vigilant and address potential future changes, it is equally important to avoid alarmism and base our assessments on credible, observable data. The Earth's climate has always been in a constant state of change, and while this change is gradual and often imperceptible, it is essential to approach the issue with a balanced perspective.

By critically examining the evidence and understanding the underlying factors, we can better navigate the challenges posed by potential sea level rise and work towards sustainable solutions for our coastal communities.