The Role of Fossil Fuels in Driving Societal and Technological Transformation

Over the past 500 to 300 years, there has been a transformative change in human civilization and society. This transformation can be attributed to the significant advancements in technology and the widespread use of fossil fuels. These developments have led to unprecedented growth in both the size and complexity of human societies. At the core of this transformation is one primary cause: the access to immense amounts of fossil energy.

Limitations Before the Industrial Revolution

Before the 1850s, humanity was primarily reliant on the Sun's energy, captured through photosynthesis by plants. This energy was utilized in various forms, such as windmills and water wheels, but the primary methods of producing and transporting energy remained highly limited. Most work was done using human and animal labor, who then consumed plant and animal matter to sustain themselves.

The Emergence of Fossil Fuels and the Positive Feedback Loop

The breakthrough came in the 19th century when mankind discovered how to harness fossil fuels, such as coal, oil, and gas. This transition enabled a positive feedback loop, transforming a gradual increase in sophistication into a rapid, explosive growth. For instance, the invention of the steam engine marked a significant milestone in this transformation. Specifically, in 1750, the Newcomen steam engine was invented, which was followed by James Watt's improved model in 1784. These engines revolutionized coal extraction, allowing for far more efficient coal mining and the mechanization of industry.

As the UK's population graph from the mid-18th century demonstrates, the invention of the steam engine was a pivotal moment. Here's an excerpt from the population data of the UK during this period, illustrating the dramatic increase.

From the steam engine to oil wells drilled in the 1850s, the efficiency of energy extraction dramatically increased. A profusion of kerosene extracted from coal paved the way for internal combustion engines, marking another significant milestone. This series of inventions and improvements led to the Industrial Revolution, a period of profound and rapid economic and social transformation.

Understanding Efficiency and Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI)

To truly understand the impact of these advances, one must examine the efficiency of energy systems. For modern systems, a 10-20% improvement in efficiency is considered significant, whereas early steam engines offered improvements of 100-200%. This efficiency is known as Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROEI).

EROEI is a measure of how much energy is produced in comparison to the energy required to extract, process, and deliver it. For fossil fuels, the EROI is much higher. For example, the EROI of coal is about 40-1, and early oil wells had an EROI of about 100-1. This means that burning one barrel of oil could yield 100 barrels of oil, resulting in a massive energetic profit of about 10,000 times the input energy. These remarkable efficiencies fueled the rapid growth of global society in the late 19th and early 20th centuries.

The Declining Energy Profits

However, as the best fossil fuel deposits are depleted and newer, more difficult-to-access reserves are exploited, the EROI is decreasing. Today, the EROI for oil and gas is approximately 20-1, meaning that it takes 20 barrels of oil to extract an additional barrel of oil. Unfortunately, maintaining the sophisticated modern global society requires an EROI of at least 10-1. The decline in energy efficiency implications for the future of society are profound.

The energy derived from fossil fuels is essential for running universities that produce engineers and scientists, ensuring the continued flow of energy. Currently, the world consumes approximately 90 million barrels of oil per day, along with equivalent amounts of natural gas and coal. This energy supports not only economic activities but also food production, which is heavily dependent on fossil fuels.

The Dilemma of Energy Consumption and Climate Change

The reliance on fossil fuels has led to significant environmental challenges, such as climate change. The high carbon content of these fuels contributes to the greenhouse gases that have been a key driver of global warming. Moreover, the embodied energy in food production makes the situation even more critical, as approximately 90% of the energy in food globally comes from fossil fuels.

Given these challenges, the future of our energy infrastructure faces critical questions. If the energy sources run out or become too low in quality, humanity may revert to a much simpler and less sophisticated way of life, similar to that before 1850. This transition, if it occurs, would be a significant challenge and would require innovative solutions to ensure a sustainable future.

The era of fossil fuels has brought about immense benefits, but as it wanes, humanity must find alternative energy sources that can meet the complex needs of modern society while addressing the pressing environmental issues.