Understanding the Recent Split of NCP and Its Impact on BJP's Plans for UCC

Recent rumors and developments within the political landscape have sparked debate over the splitting of the National Congress Party (NCP), particularly in relation to the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) plans to pass the Uniform Civil Code (UCC) in Parliament.

Why the Split?

The splitting of NCP could be due to internal disagreements between factions, such as the Pawars, or it could be a mere survival strategy. However, it is unlikely to benefit the BJP significantly.

In a recent statement, one political analyst emphasized that 'nothing wrong and it’s not a crime... ' This highlights the broader context of political tensions and the need for survival within the highly polarized Indian political scene.

BJP's Agenda for UCC

The BJP, which holds a majority in both the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha, has already secured the necessary support to pass the UCC. Therefore, the inclusion of NCP or Shinde's Sena was not essential for the passing of the UCC.

Initially, the BJP took NCP on board primarily to keep Shiv Sena leader Udhav Thackeray in check and to secure additional vote banks, especially for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Shortsighted Decisions and Their Consequences

However, this short-sighted strategy could backfire, leading to significant negative consequences for the BJP. Here are several reasons why:

Lack of Assurance of Vote Transfer: Even if people wanted to vote for the BJP, they would have done so much earlier. Shiv Sena and NCP have their own vote shares, and loyalty to Thackeray and Pawar cannot be underestimated. Lingering Sympathy: BJP supporters may view these developments as a Chanakya moment (a crafty political maneuver), but the common people might see it as a 'not again' moment, likely to discourage them from voting for a party that seems to constantly shift alliances and demonstrate poor ethical standards. Growing Discontent: In Shinde Sena and BJP MLA's, there is a growing discontent because key portfolios were awarded to Ajith's NCP, adding to the mistrust and dissatisfaction. Negative Optical Image: The frequent surprise political developments are likely to portray the BJP as a party lacking in ethical standards and planning, which could further alienate voters and discourage them from supporting the BJP.

Conclusion

In summary, while the BJP may be eyeing the UCC as a significant legislative achievement, the inclusion of NCP and Shiv Sena has proven to be a risky and potentially harmful strategy. The negative optics and internal dissatisfaction could hinder the BJP's ability to maintain voter support and advance its legislative agenda.