Is Toyota's Solid State Battery Hype Real or Bust?

Solid state batteries have been a hot topic since the 1980s, with many companies, including the automotive giant Toyota, investing heavily in research. Despite numerous announcements and promising timelines, the commercialization of solid state batteries remains elusive. This article delves into Toyota's progress and the challenges they and other companies face in bringing this technology to market.

Challenges in Solid State Battery Commercialization

Predicting when solid state batteries will be ready for mass production is highly challenging. According to Toyotas’ history of announcing imminent readiness, it’s clear that scaling and cost issues are significant barriers.

While making a few prototype batteries in a lab can be impressive, the journey from prototype to mass production is fraught with challenges. For instance, Toyota and other companies have noted that making a dozen solid state batteries can cost over $6 million. After years of development, the cost has come down to approximately $100,000 per battery, but this is still far from the $1 per battery cost necessary for widespread adoption in electric vehicles (EVs).

Moreover, even if solid state batteries are developed, they won’t necessarily be the answer. The automotive industry requires batteries that can withstand extreme temperatures, ensure safety, and offer high energy density and fast charging capabilities. These needs often conflict with the desires of consumers who prioritize portable and reliable technology, reflected in the high willingness of companies like Apple and Samsung to pay more for battery safety and longevity.

Toyota's Indecisiveness and Potential Disappointment

Another significant issue is Toyotas' indecisiveness regarding the integration of full-electric vehicles into their lineup. They have frequently mentioned that they are just a few years away from solid state battery commercialization, a timeline that stretches back to 2015. Consistently, they have proposed timelines such as 2017, 2019, 2020, 2022, and 2023. None of these have materialized, leading to skepticism about Toyotas’ commitment and reliability.

Furthermore, Toyotas' waffling vision and leadership disputes suggest that they may not be the ones to break through the scaling and cost issues. Leadership instability often leads to delayed innovation. For reference, during the same period, Tesla announced and released several new models, including the Model 3, Model Y, the Cybertruck, and the Tesla Semi. They also introduced two different battery technologies. This swift progress by Tesla highlights the potential gap between hyped timelines and actual technological breakthroughs.

The Future of Solid State Batteries in the Auto Industry

While Toyota might not be the one to finally commercialize solid state batteries, it's not impossible. Many companies, from LG Chem and ATL to even lesser-known startups, are racing in this field. Additionally, universities might surprise us with breakthroughs that lead to valuable discoveries, even if they were initially exploring unrelated processes.

Progress in solid state battery technology is a collaborative effort that requires not just innovation but also a bit of luck. Heading into 2024, it's crucial to remember that while hype can create excitement, real-world applications and commercialization remain a complex and lengthy process.

Conclusion

Toyota has undoubtedly made significant strides in the development of solid state batteries, but the technology's commercialization into widespread EV adoption is far from certain. The automotive industry, characterized by its strict standards and harsh operating conditions, presents unique challenges that require substantial progress in terms of cost, safety, and performance.

It's essential to remain cautious about hype and to focus on real-world applications and advancements. While Toyota may not be the primary innovator in this field, the progress in solid state battery technology continues, driven by a variety of companies and research institutions around the world.