Understanding the Challenges and Future Prospects of Augmented Reality

Augmented reality (AR) has often been described as a “slow to market” innovation. This perception is not entirely unfounded, especially when considering its current role in key markets. AR fits into what some enthusiasts and researchers call a Type III innovation, characterized by its complexity and the need for extensive research and development (RD) to make it user-friendly and commercially viable. Yet, the marketing narratives surrounding AR do not always reflect these realities, leading to frustration among consumers and stakeholders.

Why is Augmented Reality So Slow to Market?

The main reason for AR's slow market penetration is the extensive RD required to create user-friendly hardware and software, along with the development of robust user interfaces. AR headsets and glasses, the ultimate form factor, are still in the early stages of development and are not yet accessible to the average consumer. The hardware for standalone AR devices remains expensive, and while handheld AR applications are already available, the transition to more advanced AR devices will require significant advancements in both hardware and software.

According to many experts, AR is already present in the form of mobile apps, which run on smartphones with AR capabilities. These apps are user-friendly and accessible, leveraging mobile devices that nearly everyone already owns. The next step is to transition these applications to AR headsets and glasses, a process that requires additional RD and cost reductions. Once the hardware and software are optimized for consumer use, and consumer AR devices are more widely available, the market will mature more rapidly.

The Current State of AR

While AR is not yet ready for “prime time,” it is making significant progress. The design work for AR glasses is still in the early stages, with many design elements still requiring refinement. Additionally, the user interface still needs to be optimized for a wide range of applications. The resolution of current AR devices is still a significant challenge, as prolonged use can cause user discomfort, much like extended use of high-resolution displays in traditional monitors or televisions.

Despite these challenges, the deployment of AR in various sectors is already underway. However, for widespread adoption, AR needs to address broader issues such as user education and training in AR standards and tools, as well as reducing the cost of these technologies. Currently, most AR applications are bespoke, meaning they are one-of-a-kind solutions specific to a single project. However, as more students are taught about AR/VR/MR methodologies, and as consensus-based standards and tools become more widely available, the application of AR in various industries will expand exponentially.

Comparing AR to CGI

To better understand the trajectory of AR, it is instructive to compare it to CGI (Computer-Generated Imagery). CGI, a well-known example of a complex innovation, faced similar challenges in its early days. When CGI first appeared in films like Jurassic Park, it required substantial investment and expertise. Over time, however, CGI became more accessible, with schools and universities offering widespread courses in animation and visual effects. Today, the cost of producing CGI content is much lower, and it is used extensively across various media and industries, often without special mention of its technical intricacies.

The same trajectory is expected for AR. As more educational programs incorporate AR/VR/MR into their curricula, and as industry standards and tools become more standardized, AR will become more accessible to a broader workforce. This, in turn, will drive the development of more AR applications, leading to a virtuous cycle of innovation and adoption.

Given the current landscape, it is important to remain patient and optimistic about the future of AR. Consumer AR devices will arrive when everything is ready, and once they do, the market will experience a rapid expansion as more people gain access to these technologies. The path from the early stages of RD to widespread consumer adoption is complex and lengthy, but the potential benefits are significant, making AR a promising technology with a bright future.