What if the European Union had been formed after WWI?

Throughout history, Europe has been marked by an enduring cycle of conflict. The idea for the European Union arose not just from the devastation of the last century's wars but also from the political and economic complexities emerging post-World War I. This formation was a significant step away from a fragmented Europe toward unity and cooperation, but imagining a different outcome could provide valuable insights into the current dynamics of the EU.

Origins and Context of the EU

The formation of the EU is rooted in the belief that countries within the union are liberal democracies with a minimal chance of mutual conflict. However, following World War I, this was not the reality for most of Europe. Democratic institutions were weak in many countries, and the Treaty of Versailles had a profound impact. Despite these challenges, the existence of empires such as the UK, France, Belgium, Italy, and the Netherlands meant that there was less urgency for a pan-European trading bloc.

The foundations of the EU can be traced back to the integration of a trade-based Common Market, which was more about economic cooperation than political union. However, the conditions post-World War II-where the cold war and the aftermath of World War II provided additional impetus to unity-are crucial to understanding the current structure and dynamics of the EU.

Key Aspects of the European Union

The EU is a unique supranational organization that restrains even the most powerful nations within its boundaries. Germany, often seen as the leading country in the EU, rose to prominence not through dominance but through the desire and cooperation of its neighbors. Post-1945, non-zero-sum approaches have led to the success of European integration. In a historical scenario where Germany emerged victorious in World War I, it is likely that a different framework would have been established.

The Septemberprogramm assembled for the German chancellor in 1914 exemplifies the intentions of German elites to establish a framework where Germany would dominate a vast territory from France to the Russian territories. This framework was coercive and aimed at creating a continental system rather than a peaceful federation. In contrast, the EU as it exists now promotes a non-coercive and cooperative structure.

Implications for the EU Today

In the absence of the cold war and the immediate threat of another major conflict, the EU might have taken a different path. Instead of a political and economic union focused on cooperation and mutual benefit, a victor Germany might have pushed for a coercive framework reminiscent of the Mitteleuropa concept. This could have led to a system similar to the Warsaw Pact and Comecon, where military, political, and economic power was centralized around Germany.

Such a structure would have potentially led to a more authoritarian and centralized model of governance, hindering the democratic and market-oriented principles that underpin the current EU. The absence of such a framework has allowed the EU to evolve into a more diverse and democratic union, fostering economic cooperation and shared values.

Conclusion

Understanding the potential alternative scenarios for the formation of the EU can provide valuable insights into the current structure and challenges it faces. The historical context of World War I and its aftermath highlights the importance of the geopolitical and economic factors that shaped the current EU. The comparison between a potential Mitteleuropa-style framework and the current EU structure underscores the significance of cooperation, non-zero-sum approaches, and democratic governance in fostering a stable and peaceful union.