When Will the Indian Aviation Sector Resume Normal Functioning?

The pandemic seems to be showing signs of abating in India, and this positive trend is expected to bring some solace to the aviation sector. With the easing of restrictions, domestic air travel is anticipated to resume soon. The government is currently considering initiating domestic flights in certain regions, with a targeted start date of around May 17th.

Expected Timeline for Resumption of Flights

While no official confirmation has been made yet, the aviation sector is cautiously optimistic. It is estimated that domestic operations will return to their pre-pandemic levels by 2022, although international flights might take until 2024 to fully recover. According to Captain Mohan Ranganathan, an aviation safety expert, it could take more than a month to even begin. This timeframe is not just due to logistical considerations, but also because of the inherent challenges of adhering to social distancing guidelines on aircraft.

Challenges Faced by the Aviation Sector

One of the primary challenges is the nearly impossible task of maintaining social distancing on flights. Proposals such as leaving seats vacant would severely limit the seating capacity and significantly increase ticket prices. For instance, airlines would need to operate at just 60% of their usual capacity, making the operation a costly and potentially unviable proposition.

Main Hubs and Risks

Delhi and Mumbai, which account for about 50% of all flights in the country, are currently under lockdowns due to the high number of coronavirus cases. These major aviation hubs cannot risk resuming operations if there is a second wave or an upsurge in infections. The government must thoroughly assess the situation by the first week of May before finalizing any guidelines for air travel.

Most Optimistic Scenario

In the most optimistic scenario, it is speculated that domestic flights might resume by the end of May. However, this is highly contingent on the prevailing health situation and the outcomes of discussions with stakeholders such as the airline industry, public health authorities, and the government. The success of this plan would depend on a multi-faceted approach, including stringent health protocols, passenger screening, and quarantine measures for inbound passengers.

The Indian aviation sector is hopeful but cautious, with experts and authorities alike working diligently to balance the needs of the economy with public health concerns. As the situation stabilizes, the possibility of a return to normalcy in the aviation industry gradually emerges, albeit with challenges that need to be addressed promptly.