Why Can't Poland Donate Its MiG-29 Jets Directly to Ukraine? Why Does the US Need to Be an Intermediary?

The question of whether Poland can donate its MiG-29 fighter jets directly to Ukraine, rather than involving the United States as an intermediary, has drawn significant attention. This article dives into the complexities involved, with a focus on the current geopolitical landscape and the implications of Russia's involvement.

Is Russia Attacking Poland?

The circumstances surrounding the explosion that damaged a Russian-made missile in Poland are unclear. While the Polish Foreign Ministry has stated that the missile was Russian-made, President Andrzej Duda acknowledged that it is 'most probably' Russian, but also noted that the missile's origin is still being verified. Poland is currently raising its level of military preparedness as a cautious response to the situation.

This incident has raised significant concerns, given Poland's status as a NATO member. Under the terms of the NATO treaty, an attack on one NATO member is considered an attack on all members. Consequently, NATO can intervene against the aggressor, if necessary, through military means.

Why This Is a Big Deal

The escalation of this incident is significant and presents a major challenge in the conflict. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has described it as 'a very significant escalation' of the war. Article 4 of the NATO charter plays a crucial role in such escalations, providing a mechanism for member states to consult and take appropriate actions.

Article 4 of the NATO Charter

Article 4 of the NATO charter states that member states will consult together whenever the territorial integrity, political independence, or security of another member is threatened. It allows for the exchange of views and information, and the discussion of issues before taking action. This article also equips NATO with a role in preventive diplomacy to help avoid military conflict.

Article 4 has been invoked several times in the past, such as in Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Romania, and Slovakia in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Turkey also invoked Article 4 in 2015 following a suicide bombing near its border with Syria.

When NATO Can Intervene

NATO's action is guided by Article 5 of the NATO charter, which states that an armed attack against one or more NATO members in Europe or North America should be considered an attack on all. Each member must then take such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

The Article 5 clause has only been invoked once, following the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the United States, leading NATO forces to respond with military action in Afghanistan.

What Biden Said

President Joe Biden mentioned in a press conference following an emergency meeting with G7 and NATO leaders at the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, that 'we are going to figure out exactly what happened.' He added that 'preliminary information' suggests that the missile, which landed near Poland's border with Ukraine, was unlikely to have been fired from Russia. Ukrainian officials, however, have blamed Moscow for the attack, which killed at least two people.

Conclusion

As details remain scarce, officials are cautious in their statements due to the high stakes involved. A Russian strike on NATO territory could trigger a military response from the United States and other NATO members. NATO's Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will chair an emergency meeting of alliance ambassadors in Brussels to discuss the incident.

This situation underscores the complex interplay between international relations, military intervention, and geopolitical alliances in times of crisis. The role of intermediaries like the United States becomes critical in navigating these challenges, ensuring peace and stability in the region.