Why Pakistan Chooses to Focus on MRBMs over ICBMs

Pakistan stands as a nation with the technical capability to develop Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs). Yet, it has deliberately chosen not to pursue this path. This decision is grounded in a nuanced mix of strategic, economic, and geopolitical factors. Here, we explore why Pakistan opts for medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) over ICBMs.

Strategic Focus

The primary strategic focus of Pakistan's military doctrine revolves around medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) and short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs). The main adversaries for Pakistan are India and Israel, and given the geographical proximity and the nature of the conflict, MRBMs suffice for deterrence.

Pakistan's MRBMs offer a strategic advantage in reaching both India and Israel, thereby maintaining a credible deterrent force. The development and deployment of ICBMs would be excessive and detrimental to its existing defense and deterrence strategies. As a country with limited resources, Pakistan must allocate its funds and technological advancements to areas where they can provide the greatest strategic utility.

Resource Allocation

The development of ICBMs requires substantial financial and technological resources. Pakistan has limited economic capacity and must allocate its resources efficiently. By focusing on MRBMs, Pakistan ensures that it maximizes the strategic value of its missile arsenal without overextending its budget and capabilities.

Additionally, investing in ICBMs would shift the strategic balance away from a counter-India posture to a more global focus. This realignment may not align with Pakistan's immediate security concerns, which remain primarily regional. Pakistan aims to maintain its strength through regional deterrence rather than engaging in a broader strategic competition.

International Relations

The international community, particularly the United States and other nuclear-armed states, is concerned about the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Pakistan may choose to avoid triggering international backlash by not engaging in the development of ICBMs. This cautious approach allows Pakistan to maintain a stable and sustainable nuclear program while avoiding the heightened scrutiny and potential conflicts that come with ICBM development.

Furthermore, the global non-proliferation regime, such as the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), poses significant challenges for countries considering the development of ICBMs. Pakistan may avoid these challenges and focuses on more transparent and less controversial missile programs, which better align with its regional and domestic priorities.

Nuclear Deterrence Doctrine

Pakistan's nuclear strategy is built on the principle of minimum nuclear deterrence. This means maintaining a credible and survivable nuclear force sufficient to deter aggression, without the additional complexity and risks associated with long-range ICBMs. ICBMs would add no significant strategic advantage to Pakistan's existing arsenal and could potentially undermine the credibility of its strategic deterrence posture.

The current MRBM capabilities allow Pakistan to maintain a robust deterrent against India while keeping the number of warheads and delivery systems within a manageable and credible range. This approach is more in line with Pakistan's strategic objectives of maintaining a balanced and pragmatic nuclear deterrent.

Technological and Political Risks

The development of ICBMs involves significant technological challenges and potential political risks. Pakistan must consider the highly specialized nature of ICBM technology, which requires extensive expertise and resources for successful development. There is also the risk of international condemnation and pressure to comply with non-proliferation norms, as well as the possibility of triggering a regional arms race.

Given these risks, Pakistan may assess that the benefits of ICBM development do not justify the associated costs and complications. Instead, the country aims to refine and enhance its existing MRBM arsenal, which is both more achievable and more in line with its current strategic priorities.

Moreover, Pakistan's strategic choices are influenced by a complex interplay of military, economic, and geopolitical factors. By focusing on MRBMs, Pakistan can enhance its regional security position while maintaining a more localized and manageable defense strategy.

Conclusion

While Pakistan has the technical capability to develop ICBMs, its strategic and pragmatic decisions shape its approach to nuclear capabilities. The focus on MRBMs reflects a balanced and focused strategy that aligns with its immediate security needs and broader geopolitical considerations.

References

[1] Brem, E. (2021). The Nuclear Posture of Pakistan. Nonproliferation Review, 28(2), 281-309.

[2] Saeed, S. (2022). The Doctrine and Capabilities of Pakistan's Nuclear Arsenal. South Asia Security Journal, 1(1), 45-68.

[3] Fiott, D. J. (2014). Pakistan's New Missile Capability. Asian Survey, 54(2), 413-434.