Will Fracking or Renewable Energy Dominate America's Future Energy Mix?

The debate between fracking and renewable energy is a significant topic in the energy landscape of the United States. Currently, fracking plays a dominant role, providing a large portion of the nation's energy needs. However, as advancements in renewable technologies and concerns regarding fossil fuels continue to evolve, questions arise about which source will hold more relevance in the future.

Current Role of Fracking

As of now, fracking has a substantial presence in the energy industry, particularly for oil and natural gas extraction. Much of the easy-to-access oil has been depleted, making fracking a 'last ditch effort' to sustain oil production. Over time, as fracking techniques lose their effectiveness, oil production will inevitably face a decline.

While fracking will still be relevant in the coming decades, it is likely that the peak in oil production will occur around 2035. This peak will not be the final one, but it will mark a significant turning point. Fracking will still be utilized for natural gas, ensuring a steady supply in different sectors.

Renewable Energy Alternatives

Renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and hydro continue to face challenges, particularly in terms of energy storage. Unlike fracking, which has short-term recovery capabilities, renewables require effective methods to store and distribute energy on a larger scale.

While hydrocarbons will continue to dominate, this is largely due to the current technical limitations of renewable energy storage. Lithium-ion batteries and other advanced technologies are still in their developmental stages and are not yet up to the challenge of storing large amounts of energy efficiently. The ease and speed at which natural gas-fired plants can be brought online to supplement energy from renewable sources further cement the reliable role of natural gas in the current energy mix.

Public Perception and Future Projections

The potential shift in the energy landscape will also be influenced by public perception and political decisions. Many people base their opinions on emotional responses rather than comprehensive analysis. For example, Kamala Harris's stance against fracking is rooted in her personal feelings of it being 'dirty and hazardous.'

Despite the political rhetoric, the data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows a clear trend. In 2021, crude oil and natural gas made up 68% of the energy used in the USA, while renewables accounted for only 12%. In 2022, these numbers shifted slightly to 72% for oil and natural gas, and 9% for renewables. This trend indicates a decline in the role of renewables and an increase in domestic fossil fuel production.

While I believe that fracking will continue to exist for many years to come, there will not be a massive increase in its usage. The domestic production of crude oil and natural gas, which includes shale crude and shale natural gas, already accounts for a significant portion of the total production.

A Need for Sustainable Innovations

The path to a greener future requires technological advancements and innovative solutions. While renewables are undeniably great in their peak transmission outputs, their ability to store energy remains a significant hurdle. Therefore, the future will likely see a combination of both traditional and renewable energy sources until technological breakthroughs make renewables more viable for large-scale storage and distribution.

Energy storage solutions, such as battery advancements, pumped hydro storage, and other innovative technologies, could provide the necessary improvements to make renewable energy more reliable over time. In the meantime, it is crucial to support and invest in the development of these technologies to ensure a sustainable and cleaner energy future.

Ultimately, the balance between fracking and renewable energy will depend on ongoing investments in research, policy changes, and public understanding. As more people realize the importance of sustainability and the limitations of current renewable technologies, the debate around this topic will likely evolve, leading to a more informed and balanced approach to America's energy needs.