Will New Combustion Engine Cars Still Exist in the Next 25 to 50 Years?

The discussion around the future of automotive transportation often centers on the eventual dominance of electric vehicles (EVs). However, many aspects of transportation, particularly for personal vehicles, still rely on internal combustion engines (ICEs). In this article, we will explore the potential for ICE cars to continue existing in the next 25 to 50 years, considering various factors such as infrastructure, cost, and practical applications.

Infrastructure and Charging

For electric vehicles to thrive in a widespread manner, reliable and accessible charging infrastructure is crucial. It is unlikely that every street, parking lot, and apartment complex will be equipped with charging stations in the next few decades. This means that not all car owners will have the convenience of charging their vehicles at home or at work. In areas where charging infrastructure is inadequate, ICE cars will remain a viable and predominant choice.

The reliability and cost of electric car batteries are also points of concern. Despite technological advancements, batteries can be expensive, and consumers may find it economically unviable to replace them out of warranty. This is particularly true for individuals in lower-middle and lower-income families. As a result, ICE cars offer a more affordable and practical option for these segments of the population.

Reliability and Durability

Internal combustion engines (ICEs) are renowned for their reliability and longevity. Unlike electric vehicles, which depend on the health of their battery packs, ICEs are generally well-designed to last for decades without frequent maintenance or component replacements. In many cases, engines themselves rarely need to be replaced. Additionally, ICEs are typically cheaper to manufacture and operate in the same size class compared to electric vehicles.

Applications and Industries

The transition to electric vehicles is likely to be more gradual in large industries and for specialized applications, such as earth movers, trucks, military equipment (e.g., tanks, light combat vehicles), and transportation in ships and aircraft. These sectors rely heavily on the energy density provided by liquid fuels, which is currently unmatched by the current state of battery technology. Battery energy densities, even the best lithium-ion or lithium-metal batteries, fall far short of that provided by gasoline or diesel fuel. For example, a typical lithium-ion battery has an energy density of 0.6 to 1.8 MJ/kg, compared to gasoline's energy density of 47 MJ/kg.

Given these energy density differences, it is unlikely that ships and aircraft will switch to electric power in the near future. Electric power would either require significantly more batteries, leading to weight and space issues, or would require the development of completely new propulsion technologies. In this context, gas turbines (which are combustion engines) continue to play a critical role in aviation due to their efficiency and power output.

Future Projections

While there is a possibility that personal vehicles might predominantly be either electric or hydrogen-powered in the future, heavy machinery, ships, and aircraft are likely to continue relying on fossil fuels. For trucks, the transition may be more gradual, with some models potentially utilizing hydrogen fuel cells or other advanced energy storage solutions.

Ultimately, the future of transportation is hybrid and multi-modal. While electric vehicles are expected to gain market share, ICEs and hybrid technologies will continue to play a significant role in various applications, particularly where energy density and existing infrastructure are critical factors.

Conclusion

In summary, while electric vehicles are poised to become more dominant in the coming decades, particularly for personal urban use, internal combustion engines will likely persist in various sectors such as heavy industries and specialized transportation needs. The future of transportation is complex, and both technologies will coexist for the foreseeable future.