BJP’s Aspirations and Challenges in Securing 272 Seats in 2019: A Comprehensive Analysis

Introduction

As the Indian General Election approaches in 2019, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has set its sights on securing at least 272 seats in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of the Indian Parliament. The party's ambitious goal has piqued the interest of political analysts, who are dissecting the factors that could either bolster or impede its aspirations.

Modi's Basic Income Scheme: A Game Changer

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Basic Income Scheme is a significant game changer for the BJP. This scheme compensates those earning less than the basic income, amounting to a substantial benefit for the poor and lower-middle-class citizens. This financial support is not limited to farmers; it extends to all sections of society, creating a broad foundation of support for the BJP. In view of the upcoming election, it is highly likely that the BJP will secure more than just 272 seats, potentially even exceeding 350.

Strategic Positioning and Political Landscape

The BJP operates from a commanding position ahead of the 2019 election. The party retains control in 17 states, with additional allied parties, which provides a significant advantage.

Internal Challenges

While the BJP has a strong grassroots presence and a robust campaign infrastructure, it faces several internal challenges. Rahul Gandhi's rhetoric, such as his statement that he will not allow the Prime Minister to rest or sleep, has been largely discredited. Following the election victories in three states, Congress' momentum has quickly diminished. This suggests that the BJP's public support and political leverage remain high.

State-wise Analysis: Where BJP’s Aspirations Face Obstacles

Despite the BJP's overarching ambitions, it encounters significant challenges in certain states, which may hinder its quest for 272 seats.

Andhra Pradesh

In 2014, the BJP's alliance partner, TDP, secured 15 seats, while the BJP itself obtained only 2. Currently, TDP is not part of the NDA, reducing the BJP's prospects to only 2 to 5 seats in Andhra Pradesh. Similarly, the BJP's alliance partner LJP won 6 seats, while RLSP won 3. The BJP has now partnered with JDU, which is expected to win about 17 seats, indicating a loss of 5 seats for the BJP.

Kerala and Punjab

The BJP has not yet secured a single Lok Sabha seat in Kerala and currently, it is unlikely to achieve this feat again. In Punjab, the BJP won only 2 seats, while its alliance partner SAD secured 4. The BJP is unlikely to secure more than 3 seats in Punjab in the upcoming election.

Tamil Nadu and West Bengal

In regions like Tamil Nadu, where the BJP has long desired to form a government but has failed, the current pro-Hindi image remains an impediment. The BJP faces similar challenges in several non-Hindi speaking states, where it has struggled to win even a few seats. In West Bengal, the BJP is navigating legal and general offenses, attempting to sustain its presence in Kolkata.

Data and Projections

When summing up the BJP's and its alliance's seats from 2014, significant numbers indicate a retrenchment of the BJP's standing. Despite losing 13 Lok Sabha seats in by-elections and seeing the departure of several alliance partners, the BJP still commands a formidable presence. Yet, the exact numbers may tilt crucially for securing the desired 272 seats, depending on various factors.

Conclusion

The BJP's path to securing 272 seats in the 2019 Indian General Election is fraught with both advantages and challenges. While the basic income scheme and strong state presence offer substantial benefits, specific state dynamics and historical barriers pose significant hurdles.

Jai Hind Namo Buddhay.