Why Does Iran Believe They Have a Chance Against the U.S.?

Speculation and debates abound regarding the prospects of Iran facing off against the United States, with some viewers portrayed as deluded by religion or nationalism. However, a rational examination suggests there are credible grounds for Iran to hold such beliefs. Even in the grandest timeframes, anything remains possible, but in the immediate context, certain realities remain evident.

Defining "Win"

The notion of victory is complex. While the U.S. undoubtedly wields superior military capabilities, it cannot achieve territorial control over Iran, as evidenced by its difficulties in Iraq. Iran, being larger and mountainous, presents formidable challenges to any invading force. This is not to say that Iran is contemplating conquest or victory in the traditional sense, but rather a prolonged battle of attrition where they seek to outlast the U.S. and avoid a direct invasion.

Iran's operational reality is that of a well-functioning state with a competent government and military. Its populace is united by a strong sense of national identity and shared culture, which provides a solid foundation for their military efforts. Moreover, Iran maintains a modern arsenal, capable of maintaining and utilizing advanced weaponry.

Realistic Prospects and Scenarios

Despite Iran's strengths, it is highly improbable for them to outright defeat the United States or launch a full-scale invasion. The U.S., on the other hand, could invade Iran, but it would not be a simple or easy affair. The Iranian military would remain united, leveraging the home-field advantage, and any ensuing conflict would likely be highly unpopular in the U.S., lacking a clear casus belli. Thus, the most probable outcome is a prolonged and costly war, resulting in a U.S. withdrawal and a "victory" for Iran, in the sense that they continue to hold their own.

Strategic Calculations and Provocation

Iran's strategic calculus may involve incrementally increasing both their armaments and aggression, eventually leading to a scenario where the U.S. might resort to attacking civilian targets and engaging in a ground war. Notably, President Trump nearly erred in this direction with the aftermath of the drone strike, but the decision was reversed.

With the assassination of General Soleimani, the situation has escalated. The U.S. has now engaged in a campaign of retaliation, rather than initiating a full-scale military engagement. This means that Iran's current focus is on neutralizing the U.S. military capability through relentless and disproportionate retaliatory actions, precluding any possibility of a declaration of war.

Here lies the crux of why Iran might believe they have a chance: while direct military victory is improbable, strategic patience and deterrence could lead to prolonged attrition, undermining U.S. resolve and fostering a scenario where the U.S. remains mired in a conflict that precludes any clear victory or exit strategy.