Can a Less Deadly and More Contagious COVID Variant End the Pandemic?

Is it possible for a novel coronavirus variant to emerge with enhanced transmissibility but significantly reduced lethality and mortality, thus overtaking current variants and ultimately bringing an end to the ongoing pandemic? Let’s explore the theories and potentialities behind this intriguing hypothesis.

The Role of Vaccines in Evolving Variants

The concept of creating a vaccine that produces a mild but widespread immunity could indeed play a pivotal role in ending the pandemic. This strategy has been successfully validated through the polio vaccination campaign, where a lab-modified vaccine strain promoted natural immunity and gradually displaced the original, disease-causing wild strain. Similarly, a non-infectious and non-lethal variant could be engineered to establish herd immunity without causing severe illness or death. This would effectively curb the spread of the virus by ensuring a significant portion of the population develops immunity without succumbing to severe symptoms.

It’s important to note, however, that getting vaccinated with currently available vaccines remains crucial. Vaccination not only helps in controlling the current variants but also paves the way for a more controlled transition to a less harmful variant. As Dr. Fauci has emphasized, achieving herd immunity (typically 70-80% of the population) might be sufficient to significantly reduce virus transmission. Yet, the variability in vaccination rates and adherence to hygiene measures complicates this picture, making it difficult to predict precisely how an emerging variant would behave.

Understanding the Current Situation with Omicron

While early reports suggested that the Omicron variant might be less lethal than previous variants, data from South Africa and other regions paint a more complex picture. The reduced severity observed in the Omicron wave is attributed to the pre-existing immunity among the population from prior infections or vaccinations. This immunity has helped temper the impact of Omicron, leading to a relatively lower rate of severe illness compared to earlier variants like Delta. However, the actual lethality of Omicron is still inconclusive, and early data could be influenced by various factors.

Dr. Fauci’s comments about the need for 70-80% herd immunity to stop the spread highlight the ongoing challenges in managing the pandemic. The emergence of new variants underscores the importance of continued surveillance and adaptable strategies, including widespread vaccination.

Potential for Future Variants

While it’s theoretically possible for a more contagious and less pathogenic variant to evolve and eventually overshadow current variants, it’s crucial to consider the risks involved. Laboratory-manufactured viruses often exhibit inherent instability and unpredictability, which could potentially lead to unexpected outcomes. The success of the TGEV (transmissible gastroenteritis virus) variant in pigs, which became less pathogenic after a series of mutations, demonstrates a positive outcome. However, the process and the specific characteristics of such a variant are still subjects of extensive study and debate.

Conclusion

While the possibility of a less lethal and more contagious variant ending the pandemic remains a compelling idea, it is important to approach this concept with a realistic and cautious perspective. Continued research, vaccination campaigns, and public health measures are crucial in navigating the evolving landscape of the pandemic. Until more data is available, it’s essential to stay informed and engaged in efforts to control the spread of the virus.

Sarve Bhavantu Sukhinah — May all beings be healthy and happy.