Can THAAD Defend Against ICBMs?

The question of whether the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system can stop an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) has sparked considerable debate among military analysts and the general public. While THAAD is a formidable defense system, its limitations in intercepting ICBMs are significant. This article aims to clarify these limitations and explore the reality behind current missile defense strategies.

Understanding Missile Types

ICBMs are designed to travel long distances between continents, reaching a top speed of Mach 24 as they re-enter the Earth's atmosphere. In contrast, other types of missiles, like intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBM) and tactical missiles, have shorter ranges and different trajectories, making them easier to intercept. THAAD, on the other hand, is a terminal defense system that can reach an altitude of only 150 kilometers (93 miles) and target incoming missiles traveling at speeds between Mach 5 to Mach 8.

THAAD's Limitations

Altitude and Speed: THAAD is designed to intercept targets at low-to-mid altitudes, with a maximum range of 150 kilometers. This means that an ICBM, which reaches much higher altitudes and faster speeds, would be beyond THAAD's intercept capability. An ICBM re-enters the atmosphere at a speed of Mach 24, making it too fast and too high for THAAD to effectively intercept.

Defeat Mechanisms: THAAD can be defeated if the incoming missile follows either an extremely fast or an extremely high trajectory. This presents a significant challenge for THAAD to intercept an ICBM.

Alternatives to THAAD

The United States relies on the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system, which includes the GBI-Plus missile, for intercepting ICBMs outside the atmosphere. However, the GMD system currently has only eight missiles on order and at least four have been delivered. These missiles are housed in just nine silos in Alaska and two at Vandenberg AFB. The missiles based in Anchorage are only capable of defending cities in Alaska, while those based at Vandenberg cannot protect Seattle or other eastern U.S. cities.

Theoretical Capabilities vs. Practical Reality

Theoretical Possibilities: THAAD is theoretically capable of defending locations in South Korea, where the launchers are based at Seongju, 267 kilometers south of Seoul. However, the launchers must be located within a 40-kilometer radius of the target being defended to be effective. This limitation highlights the strategic challenges in employing THAAD for ICBM defense.

Practical Challenges: Intercepting an ICBM mid-air is an extremely complex task. THAAD's success in testing scenarios relies on pre-programmed data and trajectories that are unlikely to be available during a real combat situation. While there is a theoretical chance of success, the odds of intercepting an ICBM are considered to be extremely slim. Real-world intercept tests often involve pre-programming exact specifications, making the actual combat scenario much more unpredictable.

Conclusion

While THAAD is a powerful terminal defense system, its limitations in intercepting ICBMs are profound. The current missile defense landscape includes a mix of technologies, with the GMD system providing the capability to intercept ICBMs in space, but limited in terms of deployment and coverage area. Theoretical capabilities do not always translate to practical success, underscoring the need for ongoing research and development in missile defense technologies.